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Commentary: Who do you believe?

by Martin Armstrong

March 27, 2026 - President Donald J. Trump on Monday said the United States has engaged in “very strong talks” with Iran and reached “major points of agreement” that could end the war, which Iranian officials have firmly denied. He then claimed that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spoke with a leader in the Iranian regime on Sunday and would continue talks by phone on Monday.

“They want very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal, too,” said President Trump.

President Trump added that if negotiations fall apart, “we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out.”

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, on Monday said, “no negotiations have been held with the United States.” Iran’s foreign ministry also denied President Trump’s claims about negotiations, according to Iranian state-run media.

In response to President Trump’s threats, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that the conflict and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz has threatened global energy security as well as China’s oil supplies. He warned that President Trump’s “use of force will only lead to a vicious cycle.”

“If the war expands further and the situation deteriorates again, the entire region could be plunged into an uncontrollable situation,” said Lin Jian.

Beijing is a partner of Iran, which has been the victim of this war that some believe was launched at the insistence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. China has, however, objected to Teheran’s retaliatory strikes against Gulf States housing U.S. military bases, which has triggered a widening regional war and threatens a major energy and debt crisis.

The real concern is that President Trump realized that bombing their energy sector would only result in retaliation against the Gulf States taking out their production capacity and refineries. Doing that will send oil prices dramatically higher, for this is not sinking a mere tanker, which is no more than a rounding error in global finance. Taking out the production leaves a structural crisis more akin to the 1970s.

Moreover, there is also a fear that President Trump is not a man of his word and he has turned and bombed in the middle of negotiations. The concern here is that this is a story to delay any bombing in 48 hours without admitting that there was no negotiation raising fears that he could then just claim the negotiations fell apart and then bomb them next week.

The grandfather of Neocons after John McCain died became Senator Lindsey Graham (S.C.), who is now boasting about this war with Iran with zero comprehension of how this war impacts the world economy, unlike that of Ukraine or even Taiwan. He has expressed support for the U.S. invasion and even seizing Iran’s Kharg Island. Of course, he speaks from neocon arrogance that stems from the delusion that the U.S. has the biggest military and therefore is invincible.