NEW YORK - May 19, 2010 - Illinois used to have a plan to pay off the gaping shortfall in the pension funds that pay retired teachers, university employees, state workers, judges and politicians, Dan Long recalls.
Long, director of the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, the non-partisan auditing arm of the Illinois State Legislature, remembers that back in 1994, the state laid out a proposal that would by 2011 have paid off most of what was then a $17 billion gap.
But Illinois could not stick to the plan.
With financial year 2011 less than six weeks away, the pension arrears of the 1990s look quaint. Instead of a balanced system, the state faces unfunded liabilities of about $78 billion, the biggest pension hole in the United States, and contributions of more than $4 billion for 2011, the largest single element of its $13 billion budget deficit.
Illinois is the poster child of unfunded pensions in the U.S. But state retirement systems could become a national concern, new research shows.
Joshua Rauh, associate professor of finance at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University said that without reform, some state pensions might run out within the decade. By 2030, as many as 31 states may not have the money to pay pensions; and if these funds exhaust their assets, the size of payments for the benefits they have promised will be too large to cover through taxes, putting pressure on the federal government for a bailout that could potentially cost more than $1 trillion, he says.
“It is more than a local problem,” said Rauh. “The federal government could be on the hook.”
